Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
